Better Regulation
C. Cagnin; S. Muench.; F. Scapolo (2022)
Shaping and securing the EU's Open Strategic Autonomy by 2040 and beyond
The objective of the foresight process was to look at Open Strategic Autonomy in a systematic and systemic way, encompassing different dimensions and look at them in a holistic manner. This report is part of the 2021 European Commission Strategic Foresight Agenda. Desk research, including literature review and policy analysis, synthetises existing knowledge on the current state and future possibilities in 2040 and beyond. The report presents an overview of Europe’s existing capacities, dependencies and vulnerabilities. It also describes trends and emerging issues, looking forward at how they could evolve over time, and looking at the opportunities and risks they entail. The report highlights ways the EU can start to seize the benefits from positive developments and ways to transform risks into potential for positive transformation.This report presents foresight scenarios on the global standing of the EU in 2040, in relation to Open Strategic Autonomy. They point to ways for the EU to build preparedness through anticipation. A Delphi enquiry enabled the engagement of experts who assessed and ranked the identified 'forward-looking issues' in terms of their relevance for shaping and securing the EU’s Open Strategic Autonomy towards 2040.Finally, we outline implications for leveraging the EU’s capacity to implement an Open Strategic Autonomy by 2040 and beyond. We highlight the ways in which the EU can use its existing strengths and develop further capacities, both by itself and through alliances. We address current weaknesses and upcoming challenges, point to ways of seizing underlying opportunities, and implementing identified priorities required to shape and guarantee Open Strategic Autonomy. The implications outlined should be considered as a set, as in this way they can ensure establishing a coherent policy framework.