This in-depth analysis, commissioned by the European Parliament’s Policy Department for Citizens’ Rights and Constitutional Affairs at the request of the JURI Committee, looks at the use of data for the purpose of regulatory assessment/evaluation. The author finds that data is needed to support evidence-based regulation, that information technologies, and in particular AI, can enable a more extensive and beneficial use of data, and that the use of data in ex-post evaluations can improve the regulatory process. The in-depth analysis offers policy recommendations.

The European Union (EU) is engaged in a complex digital and ecological transition. The policy programmes launched by the EU to support recovery, resiliency and new modes of growth are definitively future-oriented. Foresight is therefore particularly appropriate for the current season of EU policies. The European Commission adopted the first-ever Strategic Foresight Report in September 2020 to set out the rationale of foresight and chart priorities for the development of EU policies. In the EU legislative cycle, new policy initiatives are supported by impact assessment. To state that foresight and impact assessment are not foes, but friends is uncontroversial, but less obvious is how to pin down how exactly they can be friends. We explain how foresight can add to impact assessment, and outline some issues that will have to be addressed in the near future.

Better regulation is an agenda aiming at managing legislation across the different stages of the policy cycle. At the EU level, this agenda for reform has been handled as soft law with communications, reports, principles, and toolboxes. The ambiguity of the concept has created a policy arena where the EU institutions jockey for positions on the control of the lawmaking process. We then turn to the Member States. For their better regulation policies, they have chosen a combination of soft and hard instruments and different degrees of formalization. Tellingly, this variation shows the different views and assumptions on the efficiency of soft law as well as of the role played by legal and administrative traditions.

The objective of the foresight process was to look at Open Strategic Autonomy in a systematic and systemic way, encompassing different dimensions and look at them in a holistic manner. This report is part of the 2021 European Commission Strategic Foresight Agenda. Desk research, including literature review and policy analysis, synthetises existing knowledge on the current state and future possibilities in 2040 and beyond. The report presents an overview of Europe’s existing capacities, dependencies and vulnerabilities. It also describes trends and emerging issues, looking forward at how they could evolve over time, and looking at the opportunities and risks they entail. The report highlights ways the EU can start to seize the benefits from positive developments and ways to transform risks into potential for positive transformation.This report presents foresight scenarios on the global standing of the EU in 2040, in relation to Open Strategic Autonomy. They point to ways for the EU to build preparedness through anticipation. A Delphi enquiry enabled the engagement of experts who assessed and ranked the identified 'forward-looking issues' in terms of their relevance for shaping and securing the EU’s Open Strategic Autonomy towards 2040.Finally, we outline implications for leveraging the EU’s capacity to implement an Open Strategic Autonomy by 2040 and beyond. We highlight the ways in which the EU can use its existing strengths and develop further capacities, both by itself and through alliances. We address current weaknesses and upcoming challenges, point to ways of seizing underlying opportunities, and implementing identified priorities required to shape and guarantee Open Strategic Autonomy. The implications outlined should be considered as a set, as in this way they can ensure establishing a coherent policy framework.